The S&P 500 has achieved remarkable returns over the past two years.
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the index has increased by 28.41% — achieving a record 53 all-time high (ATH) closes throughout 2024 alone.
This year has proven to be one of the strongest on record; since the index’s establishment in 1957, returns exceeding 20% have only been realized on eight occasions.
At the time of reporting, the index stood at 6,090, having gained 1.48% over the preceding thirty days.
Technical analyses indicate that the current bull market is likely not nearing its end; the long-term trend appears stable, and the index is expected to reach 6,300 with relative ease.
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, with economists like Henrik Zeberg warning about the sustainability of high levels and predicting a potential crash, it seems institutional investors are shifting their perspectives.
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) has established a target of 7,000 by the end of 2025, while HSBC anticipates the index will reach 6,700 during the same period.
An even bolder target has emerged from Oppenheimer’s chief investment strategist, John Stoltzfus, who predicts the index could hit 7,100 by the end of 2025, making this the most optimistic outlook on Wall Street.
Oppenheimer sees AI driving significant gains in the equity market
While acknowledging existing concerns regarding the broader market, Stoltzfus is confident that the current upward trend has enough strength to navigate the anticipated challenges, asserting that: the ongoing bull market likely possesses the strength to ascend the proverbial ‘wall of worry’ into and throughout 2025.
In a communication to investors, he identified the advancement of artificial intelligence as the key factor behind his revised price target. Referring to it as a pivotal moment, he stated: ’Companies across all eleven sectors could experience improved productivity from AI, allowing them to better meet the demands of businesses and consumers.’
‘We’re not proposing an ideal world nor anticipating a ‘Goldilocks scenario,’ but emphasizing the real potential of AI to enhance efficiency in crucial areas currently hindering progress across various sectors and society at large.’
Should it reach 7,100, that would signify a 16.58% gain from the current index level. Stoltzfus’s optimistic forecast is not a recent development; he has previously been among the most bullish analysts on Wall Street, having set a target of 6,200 for the end of 2024 last November. If his short-term analysis proves accurate, the index could see an additional rise of 1.8% by the month’s conclusion.
Nonetheless, this bullish perspective is not universally accepted. For instance, Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai recently expressed that AI development is actually decelerating, noting that the most easily achievable advancements have already been realized.
Pichai predicts only modest progress in 2025. Simultaneously, investors are growing increasingly cautious about rising AI expenditures without tangible outcomes, and concerns about a potential AI bubble linger.
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