The United States 2024 presidential election has been fiercely contested since Kamala Harris emerged as Donald Trump‘s challenger. People have turned to prediction markets to acquire insights into the approval rates of each candidate, while investors speculate about the outcomes.
Specifically, the cryptocurrency-based Polymarket has gained popularity by enabling bets using the regulated dollar stablecoin USDC. With the highest speculative activity, experts have concluded this prediction market to be more dependable than conventional surveys and polls.
On September 4, Finbold gathered data from Polymarket‘s dedicated analysis page concerning the U.S. elections, which currently indicates Donald Trump in the lead. As observed, Trump now possesses an edge over Harris, with a 52% likelihood of winning compared to her 47% chance.
This follows nearly a month after the Democratic nominee outperformed the Republican contender for the first time on August 10. Donald Trump regained the lead on August 21, maintaining a slight advantage over Kamala Harris in recent days.
Polymarket‘s 2024 presidential election wager
Essentially, Polymarket‘s information derives from a free trading platform used by traders worldwide who place their bets by acquiring shares. Each winning share will yield one dollar in USDC, and traders have the option to purchase them at a fluctuating exchange rate.
At the moment of this writing, Donald Trump’s “yes” wager is valued at approximately $0.52, indicating the probability of success in the prediction market. If Trump triumphs in the election, every individual who bets “yes” at this time will gain $0.48 per share.
In total, traders have placed $794.25 million in bets for the presidential election winner, anticipated to conclude on November 4, 2024. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris hold $103.96 million and $95.83 million in bets respectively, concerning both “yes” and “no” predictions.
Prediction markets delve deeper into Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s popularity
Beyond the raw data indicating the potential president of the United States, the market also wagers on various related forecasts.
For example, Polymarket offers a breakdown of each candidate’s popularity across various states. Donald Trump currently leads in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, with support at 59%, 58%, 53%, and 52%, respectively.
In contrast, Kamala Harris has a lead in Wisconsin and Michigan with a 56% and 59% chance of victory, respectively.
The prediction market also supports a 71% likelihood of Harris winning the popular vote or a 23% chance that the candidates will shake hands during their first debate.
While prediction markets are rapidly gaining traction, the odds can become increasingly volatile and do not guarantee specific outcomes.
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